Chevron winning while ExxonMobil slips
The past quarter has offered
differing paths for two major international oil companies. ExxonMobil showed
what is for them a rare earnings slip. A result made even more surprising by
the fact that they were the only international oil producer to show a drop.
Meanwhile, Exxon’s rival Chevron,
blew well ahead of even Wall Street’s expectations, posting a double-digit
production increase. Shell and Statoil also showed good earnings.
The news is especially good for
Chevron, and troubling for its competitors, because the company has been
keeping a lid on profits in recent years, funneling a lot of its ready cash
into expansion projects in both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. The fact
that the company has been able to continue generating solid profit gains in a
flat market has a lot of people excited.
Not that one disappointing quarter
has ExxonMobil panicking. The company plans to match Chevron step for step in
expansion, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Good news for investors, though
the message may not play as well back home, with a nation – and a world – in
transition on energy.
Most Americans know and understand
the economy still runs on oil. From transportation to electric generation to
plastics, Americans love petroleum based products. That said, there’s a
generation coming up, that is very aware of oil pollution, and this generation,
more than any before it, is actually pushing to see something done to stop
pollution from fossil fuels.
While it may be premature to say
Big Oil’s days are numbered, their popularity is certainly waning, and it’s not
inconceivable that these companies will go the way of the Big Tobacco companies
that fell from grace as Generation X came of age.
For Exxon, Chevron or any other oil
company to stay competitive going forward, they will have to innovate and
accelerate expansion of and investment into alternative energy sources. It will
take time, and it might be a slow transition, but there will be a tipping
point. Public opinion is shifting that fast. That’s not
to say consumption is down all that much. After a brief hybrid blip in the mid
to late 2000s, SUVs and bigger trucks are back. While some national political
leaders are pushing for alternative transportation initiatives, Americans still
love their cars, and that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.
However, what is powering those
cars may be changing. Forget increasing emissions and mileage standards, it’s
Elon Musk’s Tesla that will really signal the sea change. With the release of
the Model 3, Musk has proven a fully-electric vehicle really can be a family
car. If the Model 3 is successful, the dominoes may begin falling very quickly,
and oil companies will need to be prepared for a major shift in consumer appetite
for fossil fuels.
Robert Gillings is an award winning writer, producer, actor architectural designer, philosopher and financial consultant.
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